Selective licensing - explanatory notes
How we decided which streets to include in selective licensing
We used an established predictive mathematical model, ‘the Simplex Method’, to analyse anti-social behaviour across Hammersmith & Fulham and its correlation with the private rented sector.
The algorithm finds the optimal solution by systematically choosing values against defined criteria. In this case the ‘what-if analysis’ finds the optimum level of properties in the private rented sector (PRS) that does not exceed 20 per cent of PRS and 20 per cent households, or exceeds 20 per cent of geographical area, but maximises the coverage of anti-social behaviour (ASB). The method predicts the best available result. All models are subject to uncertainty.
The ASB data used comes from council and police databases. It includes property-related incidents for noise and nuisance, street-based incidents that relate to property including litter, refuse placed out on the wrong day, fly-tipping and graffiti and property-related incidents of crime.
We also took a sample inspection of over 1,000 properties across the borough, to profile property types.
The review resulted in a model which showed that 172 streets in the borough, made up just under 20 per cent of the private rented sector, accounted for nearly 37 per cent of the borough’s anti-social behaviour and police call outs.
The same group of streets account for just under one third of crime in the bough, 38 per cent of all environmental nuisance, 37 per cent of all fly-tipping, 30 per cent of litter / detritus complaints and 27 per cent of all incidents where a fire engine was dispatched.
Residents in these areas tend to have a greater fear of being a victim of crime, but are significantly more likely to be concerned about being mugged or robbed, having things stolen from their cars, and being physically attacked by strangers.
In July 2016 we began a 12-week public consultation seeking views on the introduction of selective licensing. An independent research company led the consultation.
We promoted the consultation via an on-line survey, hand delivered 17,375 leaflets to targeted addresses (including 172 streets listed for selective licensing), wrote to known letting agents and landlords and promoted it in neighbouring boroughs. We advertised the consultation in the local press and regularly tweeted information and responses to questions.
We placed an article on the London Property Licensing website and this page was viewed 6,443 times. They also sent a local newsletter to over 500 subscribers.
Researchers interviewed a sample of 1,040 borough households, representative by ward, age, gender, and ethnicity and an additional 800 tenants in 'homes in multiple occupancy'.
In addition, a researcher interviewed relevant stakeholder organisations including neighbouring authorities, third sector organisations and charities, landlord groups, and providers of alternative schemes.
Report and Cabinet approval
The independent research company compiled all the findings and feedback. On 5th December 2016, Cabinet approved a report recommending the introduction of selective licensing and other measures based on the findings.
Review of post-consultation information
Following a post consultation review of information, it became apparent that there was an error resulting from the inclusion of some data relating to anti-social behaviour from commercial sources such as pubs. We have since re-run the model to exclude this. This has resulted in some streets that had been included now being excluded.
The reason that we have selected or omitted the street for selective licensing is included. We have excluded the property level and time of actual crime from the data being released to protect personal information and prevent individual people being identified.
Defn 1 – Households estimate of separate group of residents (e.g. family is one household) at postcode level and aggregated up (based on census 2011 and publicly available data)
Defn 2 - Gazetteer number of residential properties: addresses flagged as residential except for HMOs/residential institution (2016 data).
Defn 3 - Anti-social behaviour(ASB): data source 1) property specific police crime data, 2) street based refuse/litter/fly-tipping/graffiti, 3) noise and statutory nuisance.
Defn 4 - Ratio of ASB vs PRS: [estimate of ASB relating to privately rented sector ] - percentage of ASB of the borough total against the streets percentage of total households of the borough. A ratio of one or more indicates a higher level of ASB than expected if ASB was tenure-neutral.