Serious Violence Duty Strategy - 3. Summary of the strategic needs assessment of violence

The strategic needs assessment was completed in August 2023 and is intended to enable partners to identify current and long-term issues relating to serious violence and those most vulnerable to involvement in the local area. This provides a greater understanding of established and emerging serious violence trends, priority locations or other high-risk issues.  

The strategic needs assessment has been developed following an evidence-based analysis of data relating to violence, as well as broader datasets including those in relation to deprivation and health.

The strategic needs assessment has looked at the critical areas of violence and vulnerability within the definition of serious violence, including violence affecting those under the age of 25, domestic abuse and sexual violence.

In assessing each of the critical areas, the analysis has looked at locations that have a higher risk of violence and temporal factors, such as the times of greater and lesser offending, including the times of day, days of the week and seasonal trends through the year. The analysis has also looked at the profile of victims and offenders of violence, in order to understand the risks and opportunities for prevention.

The table and graph below show the number of offences reported for violence with and without injury, domestic abuse flagged offences and sexual offences since 2018. 

3.1    Violence with injury 

• There were 1,634 violent offences in 2022 that resulted in injury, this is an increase of 7% compared to 2021 and there is a higher rate of crime per resident compared to the London average
• 34% of these offences involved someone under the age of 25
• Suspects were mainly male, with more male victims but there are female victims. Under the age of 18 there are more female victims than male
• Offences more likely to involve multiple people when younger people involved. 20% of offences the suspect is unknown
• Violent offences are statistically more likely to occur on Saturday evenings between the hours of 6pm and 12am
• Most offences are actual bodily harm which make up 71% of all offences
• There was a higher proportion of offences involving knifes for offences involving under 25 year olds (6%)
• Hotspots around town locations, but more concentrated in Shepherd’s Bush for offences involving young people under the age of 25

3.2    Domestic abuse

• There were 2,835 offences flagged with domestic abuse in 2022, this is a 6% fall compared to 2021 and Hammersmith & Fulham has similar rates of crime per residents compared to the London average
• Most offences flagged with domestic abuse relate to other DA offences which make up half of all offences, with the next highest being harassment, stalking or offences relating to contact (15%), then assault (14%)
• Where the identities have been recorded victims are most likely female and suspects are male. Where the identity of the suspect is known or recorded, they are most frequently the partner or ex partner of the victim and aged between 25 – 44 years. However, there were 350 (12%) offences where the suspect was a family member of the victim
• Hotspots are in College Park and Old Oak, with further hotspots around Fulham and Sands End but offences are distributed around the borough as offence most likely to occur in residential settings, 61%. There are higher rates in population in Shepherd’s Bush Green

3.3    Sexual offences

• There are a range of crimes that can be considered as sexual offences, including rape or sexual assault, crimes against children including child sexual abuse or grooming, and crimes that exploit others for a sexual purpose, whether in person or online
• There were 395 offences in 2022, this is a similar number of offences (+1%) when compared to 2021 and has a slightly higher rate of crimes per residents when compared to the London average
• 41% of sexual offences occurred in a public place either indoor (24%) or outdoors (17%), then 29% took place in residential locations
• 28% of sexual offences were rape offences
• 15% of offences were flagged as domestic abuse, with a third of offences which took place in residential locations being domestic abuse related
• Sexual offences are statistically more likely to happen on Fridays  afternoons between 12pm and 6pm and less likely to happen on Sunday mornings
• 75% of offences where the suspect was known were male on female offences
• Offences tend to take place in Shepherds Bush Green, Hammersmith Broadway and Brook Green, with higher number in public locations in Shepherds Bush Green and had a higher proportion where the suspects were unknown to the victim

3.4    Recommendations

The recommendations below were produced from the data trends in the needs assessment and the consultation responses. Further details on the consultation can be found in section 5.

Recommendation 1:  
Tackling domestic abuse should remain a continued focus given the high proportion of violence with injury offences which are flagged as domestic abuse (24%) and the greater number of domestic abuse offences compared to violence with injury offences (70% more domestic abuse offences compared to violence with injury offences). Consideration should be given to investing in gaps in current support provision for those affected by domestic abuse, as well as initiatives to support with early intervention, enable desistence in perpetrators, and prevention projects for young people.

Recommendation 2:  
Build stronger and more effective responses to serious violence and sexual abuse, taking account of any links between these offences (and domestic abuse) to ensure the most effective services are commissioned. These responses should pay particular attention to (i) the high proportion of violent offences that involve young people under the age of 25, (i) the high proportion of violent offences that involve females under the age of 18, and (iii) the geographical trend for violence and sexual offences to take place around Shepherds Bush Green, Hammersmith Broadway, and Brook Green. 

Recommendation 3:  
A higher than expected proportion of sexual offences occurred in public spaces (both indoor and outdoor) and were concentrated in specific locations (Shepherds Bush, Hammersmith Broadway and Brook Green). Interventions that aim to reduce sexual violence in the public realm should be targeted at these locations including supporting nighttime economy venues and should be designed in consultation with women and girls across H&F.

Recommendation 4:  
Shepherd’s Bush Green and Hammersmith Broadway have the most concentrated number of offences for violence with injury and sexual offences. Specific consideration should be given to where violent crimes are taking place.

Recommendation 5:  
Interventions should also consider level of trust and confidence in partnership services and look at ways to engage best with victims of violent crime to build relationships to report and access support. Services should be developed collaboratively with residents when possible.